Bitcoin Price Prediction Failed. Tom Lee Explains Why

Bitcoin price prediction failed. Consensus conference could not push the Bitcoin rate.
Fundstrat Global Advisors analyst Tom Lee admitted his mistake about the forecast of the likely increase of Bitcoin rate during conference Consensus 2018. He indicated the reasons why it did not happen.
Earlier in May, the analyst suggested that holding the conference Consensus 2018 would have a positive effect on the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. He found support for his conclusion in previous years, when the cryptocurrencies showed an increase in the range between 10% and 70% after the Consensus. He stated that the scale of the new conference can cause a rapid Bitcoin rally to mark $ 15.000.

What Went Wrong

This year, the Consensus 2018 attracted about 9.000 visitors and a large number of speakers and experts. It surpassed its previous attendance records.

Bitcoin really increased on Monday, May 14, on the first day of conference. It jumped close to $ 8900. But on the next day the rate again rushed down, falling at a certain moment even below $ 8000. The last few days bitcoin is trading in the range between $ 8,200 and $ 8,300.

Tom Lee commented this fail in his Twitter account:
“Consensus 2018 rally did not happen, very disappointing. What we needed was a trifecta of progress: (i) institutional custody/tools; (ii) buy-in by banks/investment managers; (iii) regulatory clarity (3 of 3 needed), but we got progress on (i) and (ii). “

He also provided a more detailed analysis of the state of the market. Lee noted that despite the fact that several important statements were made at the conference, the continuing lack of regulatory clarity creates obstacles for large investors to enter the market from institutional investors.
The most important of them was the news that the Japanese bank Nomura with the participation of Global Advisor Holdings and the manufacturer of hardware wallets Ledger creates a company that will specialize in the safe storage of digital assets.
The only major cryptocurrency, which showed growth that week, was Zcash. According to Tom Lee, it happened only due to its listing on the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange.

Despite of the fact that Bitcoin price prediction failed, Tom Lee remains an optimist:
“I think Consensus was a huge success. It is a great conference to bring a lot of people together from around the world. The quality of the people that were there was amazing”.

Investor’s opinion

Some investors explained the decline and provided several reasons. The conference, in its essence, was not intended to attract new crypto supporters – the ticket cost about $ 2,000, and it was not possible to pay for it with cryptocurrency, which was considered a lack of faith in technology, which this conference, in fact, should promote.
In addition, the lectures were mostly not clear and less relevant. That in any way did not correspond to the high cost of tickets. This was one of the reasons that the event was boycotted by the co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin.

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Price

Earlier last week, the CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, said that at the present time, due to the weak involvement of institutional investors, the cryptocurrency industry is more a “retail phenomenon”. Nevertheless, he does not rule out that by the end of 2018 the Bitcoin price could reach $ 50.000.

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